tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31867318.post8292887561604372479..comments2024-03-27T04:18:35.950-06:00Comments on Corrections Sentencing: Around the Blogs, Veterans' Day EditionMichael Connellyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03292758786206928065noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-31867318.post-69034659258023731582007-11-13T13:46:00.000-06:002007-11-13T13:46:00.000-06:00Just a thought on the racial impact statements bei...Just a thought on the racial impact statements being considered in Oregon...<BR/><BR/>The argument is frequently made -- and often empirically demonstrated -- that the best predictor of an offender's future criminal behavior is his past criminal behavior. Can we apply a similar argument to institutions and other social structures, including prisons? Namely, that the best predictor of a prison's future "behavior," (e.g., the rate at which it disproportionately incarcerates minorities) is the prison's past "behavior" with regard to minority overrepresentation? If so, an impact of this type may be limited only by the same flaws inherent in any other type of impact statements, projections, and risk assessments, all of which utilize indicators of past behavior or events in order to estimate a future outcome.Christopher M. Hillhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17018080607632654360noreply@blogger.com