Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Journal of Quantitative Crim Abstracts

Good stuff up at the Journal of Quantitative Criminology right now. Here are abstracts for a couple of the interesting offerings, but you should check them all out if you get a chance.

Understanding the Role of Repeat Victims in the Production of Annual US Victimization Rates

Michael Planty and Kevin J. Strom

Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Volume 23, Number 3 / September, 2007, 179-200

Abstract Victimization incidence rates produced from the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) are a generally accepted annual indicator of the amount and type of crime in the United States. However, persons who report a large number of similar victimizations—known as series victimizations in the NCVS—are currently excluded in government reports of annual violent victimizations. This paper quantifies the effect of series incident counting procedures on national estimates of violent victimization. The findings suggest that these high-volume repeat victims can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of violent victimization. Current government counting rules that exclude series incidents do not include about three out of every five violent victimizations and distorts the characterization and risk of violence in the United States. However, the inclusion of series incidents introduces significant estimate instability. One remedy is to use prevalence rates in concert with incidence rates to present a more complete and reliable picture of victimization.

Space–Time Patterns of Risk: A Cross National Assessment of Residential Burglary Victimization

Shane D. Johnson, Wim Bernasco, Kate J. Bowers, Henk Elffers, Jerry Ratcliffe, George Rengert and Michael Townsley

Journal of Quantitative Criminology, Volume 23, Number 3 / September, 2007, 201-219

Abstract Using epidemiological techniques for testing disease contagion, it has recently been found that in the wake of a residential burglary, the risk to nearby homes is temporarily elevated. This paper demonstrates the ubiquity of this phenomenon by analyzing space–time patterns of burglary in 10 areas, located in five different countries. While the precise patterns vary, for all areas, houses within 200 m of a burgled home were at an elevated risk of burglary for a period of at least two weeks. For three of the five countries, differences in these patterns may partly be explained by simple differences in target density. The findings inform theories of crime concentration and offender targeting strategies, and have implications for crime forecasting and crime reduction more generally.

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